Data Mining • Statistics • Energy • Modeling • Sas • Analytics • Project Management • Statistical Modeling • Data Analysis • Predictive Analytics • Optimization • Business Intelligence • Petroleum • R • Mathematical Modeling • Engineering • Research • Oil and Gas • R&D • Prediction • Simulations • Process Engineering • Management • Business Development
Marathon Oil Corporation Aug 2015 - Nov 2016
Senior Consultant
Texas A&M University Aug 2015 - Nov 2016
Adjunct Professor
Bp Jan 1, 1967 - May 7, 2014
Statistics and Data Mining
Independent Contractor Jan 1, 1967 - May 7, 2014
Data Mining and Statistics Contractor
Education:
Purdue University 1967 - 1971
Master of Science, Masters, Statistics
Miami University 1965 - 1967
Bachelors, Bachelor of Arts, Mathematics
Eaton Oh High School 1959 - 1963
Eaton High School Eaton, Ohio
Skills:
Data Mining Statistics Energy Modeling Sas Analytics Project Management Statistical Modeling Data Analysis Predictive Analytics Optimization Business Intelligence Petroleum R Mathematical Modeling Engineering Research Oil and Gas R&D Prediction Simulations Process Engineering Management Business Development
Interests:
Science and Technology Arts and Culture
Languages:
German French
Certifications:
Fellow of the American Statistical Association Distinguished Science Alumnus American Statistical Association - Asa Purdue University
Eric R. Ziegel - Houston TX, US Richard S. Bailey - Ashtead, GB Kip P. Sprague - Anchorage AK, US
Assignee:
BP CORPORATION NORTH AMERICA INC. - Warrenville IL
International Classification:
G06F 17/18
US Classification:
702179
Abstract:
A method and system for evaluating the sample coverage of ultrasonic or radiography (UT/RT) measurements of pipeline wall thickness for statistical validity. A data library contains distributions of in-line inspection (ILI) measurements for other pipelines, calibrated to correspond to UT/RT measurements as needed. The data library for these ILI-measured pipelines also includes statistics generated from Monte Carlo simulation, by way of which various sample coverage levels sample the ILI measurements, for determining whether a measurement exceeds a given threshold or meets another premise related to determining the extreme wall loss measurement for the pipeline. A pipeline with sampled UT/RT measurements is used to identify one or more ILI-measured pipeline datasets that are most similar, and the statistics from those most similar pipeline datasets determine whether the sample coverage of the UT/RT measurements is sufficient to draw conclusions about the extreme value of wall loss in the sampled pipeline.
Eric R. Ziegel - Houston TX, US Richard S. Bailey - Ashtead, GB Kip P. Sprague - Anchorage AK, US
International Classification:
G06F 19/00 G06F 17/18
US Classification:
702 34, 702179
Abstract:
A method and system for estimating the worst case corrosion in a pipeline for which pipeline wall thickness measurements are limited to sampled ultrasonic or radiography (UT/RT) measurements. A data library contains distributions of in-line inspection (IL) measurements for other pipelines, calibrated to correspond to UT/RT measurements as needed. These ILI datasets are randomly sampled multiple times, to obtain multiple sample sets from each ILI dataset. Candidate statistical distributions are evaluated for each sample set to determine which of the candidate statistical distributions most accurately estimates the worst case corrosion measured by ILI. A discriminant function is then derived from sample statistics and pipeline descriptors associated with the sample sets, along with the best candidate statistical distribution for that sample set. Sample statistics and pipeline descriptors for the pipeline with sampled UT/RT measurements are then applied to the discriminant function to determine the best one of the candidate statistical distributions for extreme value estimation, and the worst case corrosion is then determined using that best statistical distribution.
Statistical Reservoir Model Based On Detected Flow Events
Shahryar G. Shirzadi - Katy TX, US Richard Bailey - Ashtead, GB Eric Ziegel - Houston TX, US
Assignee:
BP EXPLORATION OPERATING COMPANY LIMITED - Middlesex BP CORPORATION NORTH AMERICA INC. - Houston TX
International Classification:
G06G 7/48
US Classification:
703 10
Abstract:
Computerized method and system for deriving a statistical reservoir model of associations between injecting wells and producing wells. Potential injector events are interactively identified from time series measurement data of flow rates at the wells, with confirmation that some response to those injector events appears at producing wells. Gradient analysis is applied to cumulative production time series of the producing wells, to identify points in time at which the gradient of cumulative production changes by more than a threshold value. The identified potential producer events are spread in time and again thresholded. An automated association program rank orders injector-producer associations according to strength of the association. A capacitance-resistivity reservoir model is evaluated, using the flow rate measurement data, for the highest-ranked injector-producer associations. Additional associations are added to subsequent iterations of the reservoir model, until improvement in the uncertainty in the evaluated model parameters is not statistically significant.
Use Of Survival Modeling Methods With Pipeline Inspection Data For Determining Causal Factors For Corrosion Under Insulation
Richard S. Bailey - Surrey, GB Kip P. Sprague - Anchorage AK, US Eric Ziegel - Houston TX, US
Assignee:
BP EXPLORATION OPERATING COMPANY LIMITED - Sunbury-On-Thames BP CORPORATION NORTH AMERICA INC. - Houston TX
International Classification:
G06G 7/48
US Classification:
703 6
Abstract:
Methods and systems for using survival modeling methods with pipeline inspection data to determine causal factors for corrosion under insulation comprise determining a first corrosion condition of a pipeline joint at a first time; determining a second corrosion condition of the pipeline joint at a second, subsequent time; determining joint attributes, pipeline attributes, and location attributes associated with the pipeline joint; and repeating the process for a plurality of pipeline joints in one or more pipelines. This information is fed into a multiple regression and survival analysis process that determines regression coefficients reflecting the estimated degrees to which various factors contribute to corrosion under insulation. The survival analysis also determines one or more survival models capable of predicting when a given pipeline joint is likely to transition from a first corrosion state to a different second corrosion state, given values for its various attributes.
Richard S. Bailey - Surrey, GB Kip P. Sprague - Anchorage AK, US Eric Ziegel - Houston TX, US
Assignee:
BP EXPLORATION OPERATING COMPANY LIMITED - Sunbury-On-Thames BP CORPORATION NORTH AMERICA INC. - Houston TX
International Classification:
G06N 5/02 G06N 3/02
US Classification:
706 15, 706 46
Abstract:
In accordance with aspects of the present disclosure, a computer-implemented method for predicting a material deterioration of a coupon inserted into the well line system is disclosed. The computer-implemented method can be stored on a tangible and non-transitory computer readable medium and arranged to be executed by one or more processors that cause the one or more processors to receive data related to the well line system; determine one or more predictors of material deterioration of a coupon based on the data; and predict a material deterioration of the coupon inserted into the well line system based on a mathematical model of the material deterioration using the one or more predictors.
Virtual In-Line Inspection Of Wall Loss Due To Corrosion In A Pipeline
Eric Ziegel - Houston TX, US Richard Bailey - Ashtead Surrey, GB Kip Sprague - Naperville IL, US
International Classification:
F17D 5/00
US Classification:
702 34
Abstract:
In accordance with aspects of the present disclosure, a computer-implemented method for predicting a material deterioration state of a pipeline is disclosed. The computer-implemented method can be stored on a tangible and non-transitory computer readable medium and arranged to be executed by one or more processors that cause the one or more processors to receive data related to the pipeline, create a mathematical model of pipeline wall corrosion and use the mathematical model to determine sections of pipeline that should be physically inspected.
Computer-Implemented Method, A Device, And A Computer-Readable Medium For Data-Driven Modeling Of Oil, Gas, And Water
Eric Ziegel - Houston TX, US Shahryar Shirzadi - Katy TX, US Richard Heddle - Camberley, GB Richard Bailey - Ashtead Surrey, GB Carl Cook - Minneapolis MN, US
International Classification:
G06F 17/50
US Classification:
703 2, 703 9
Abstract:
A method for independently modeling a water flow rate, an oil flow rate, and a gas flow rate using data-driven computer models is disclosed. The method can include obtaining parameters of a well associated with an asset during a well test; creating the ensemble of data-driven models to model the water flow rate, the oil flow rate, and the gas flow rate based on the parameters; evaluating each model of the ensemble of models; selecting a subset of models from the ensemble of models; modeling each of the water flow rate, the oil flow rate, and the gas flow rate independently using the subset of models; reconciling each of the water flow rate, the oil flow rate, and the gas flow rate for the well with a total flow rate at the asset; and outputting the water flow rate, the oil flow rate, and the gas flow rate.